Discounting Toss

India won their first bilateral ODI series in Srilanka, it is heartening that this was achieved with an incomplete team - no Sachin and Sehwag. But if we look at the tour - what we actually did was won the toss 4 times in a row. Nothing to take away from excellent performance of Zaheer, Dhoni and company. But the results were rather sealed as soon as the toss happened- this should be agreed atleast for Premadasa.

This reminded me of some of other grounds where you more or less know whats going to happen as soon as the toss is done - atleast the match is not unbiassed anymore. Let us look at results of day-night matches from some of the grounds during various timeframes in the last decade and a half.

Ground	Time Period	Matches Played	Won batting first	Won batting second
Newlands, Capetown	1992-08	24	19	5
Premadasa, Colombo	2000-08	40	26	11
Kingsmead, Durban	2003-08	14	6	3
PCA,Mohali	1996-07	14	9	5
Gaddafi, Lahore	2007-08	8	8	0
Eden Gardens	1993-03	9	7	2

These results are mainly affected by dew that either helps the bowlers get some swing under the lights and trouble the batsmen. When we have the data to support the argument that the toss plays a very important role in deciding the result of the match is it fair to still play under these conditions.

Of course there are some grounds where the results are just reverse as the weather is relatively dry and dew only results in spin bowlers not being able to find the grip of the ball under lights and the batsmen makes the most out of it

Ground	Time Period	Matches Played	Won batting first	Won batting second
Motera,Ahmedabad	2003-08	7	2	5
SMS, Jaipur	2006-08	7	2	5

A couple of options come to my mind at this point which I think would make these games competitive.

Option1: Each team would play 50 0vers in two splits such that each split is at least for 15 overs. Also there is at least one power play of 5 overs in each split. A vs B goes some thing like this -

The team winning the toss would decide what they want to do and the team batting first say A would declare when they want to split, then team B bats and declares when they want to split so that the team A can continue their innings and complete it following which team B would chase the target.

Option 2: This one flows from the huge success of 20 cricket. A couple of innings of 20/25 overs each where the team winning toss would either choose to bat or bowl in the first innings and team losing toss would decide what they want to do in second innings.

The options sounds crazy is it - but let us wait and watch!!!

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This is one of the most familiar numbers these days in Hyderabad ... yes you guessed it rite - Radio Cabs, a concept that was non-existent in the city before the new international airport came up six months ago. The old airport was mainly served by autos, taxis and cabs. But the ultra modern airport has limited itself to radio cabs and call taxis as there was need to generate some revenue out of this business opportunity. GMR, the partner of the country's second PPP airport is now leaving no stone unturned to generate revenues - and the commission from radio cabs seems to be one of the options before the firm.

There are number of players who ventured into this business with a total of close to 2500 radio cabs between them and some of them are still waiting to enter the market. The government regulations exist even in this business ensuring that there is an entry barrier - read minimum of 100 cabs are required to enter the business and at the same time there is no monopoly - the number of cabs for any player is restricted to 1000. The sudden surge is largely helped by three factors - the distance of the airport from the city , lack of convenient commutation options and of course the increase in the disposable income . However, this wave has not been a smooth one - it has its own issues, major one being lack of supply of quality drivers. What it meant was another business opportunity to some of the driving schools and also the training schools to teach some etiquette to the drivers so that they present themselves well before the customers.

The radio cab companies are coming up with an lucrative salary and incentives to attract the limited pool of drivers. Now some of them have taken a step further and this is what has interested me and thats why the post - They have announced a scheme that any driver who drives a cab for a period of 7-10 years can own the car. This gives them various advantages - firstly the drivers can be retained, secondly the drivers will be careful after all it is their car in future and lastly it will become easy for the companies to dispose off the cars in future and may be they can gain some tax advantage utilizing the appropriate accounting mechanisms. Smart way to think - Isn't it?

Bouncing thoughts

This is the title of the mail that I received last week from one of my colleague and mentor at Wilco. The summary of the mail is to explore an option of developing low cost applications (may be at INR 1000) for SME's and use of rural IT talent to develop these simple tools using simple mySQL and VB. This mail definitely sounded very interesting and wanted to put in some efforts to have a closer look into this.

The rural entrepreneurs are enthusiastic to embrace the IT products if they are convinced about the benefits and of course ROI. Now who will help them out in creating such a solution - a new venture? Quick economics shows that it would take not less than INR6000 to create such a product- and how many takers are there for such kind of products at that price? It is very difficult for such a venture to sustain in long run and at the same time these applications needs to be priced lower so that the enthusiasm is converted into business . This is the reason to invite big Indian IT houses to cross subsidize these products and empower the rural entrepreneur with technology.

Typically the kind of applications needed by SMEs are simple work flow applications and may be some billing and inventory monitoring solutions. These can be comfortably designed by any software engineer with 2-3 year experience and these can be developed by any software literate with basic guidance. There is huge talent that is being wasted on bench in all the big IT firms and it would be a good idea for them to use this bench strength to tap this opportunity. Even if not there are engineering graduates and students in every nook and corner of the peninsula (True at least in case of Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka and Tamil Nadu) - the companies could use them to develop these applications after giving appropriate training - which in turn would also make them employable in future.

In the wake of weakening dollar IT companies are facing severe pressure to maintain the margins. The US Economy and the turmoil in the financial and banking sectors across the globe is only adding to the problem and would make it tough for the IT companies to find new outsourcing assignments. (Please note that BFSI sector forms 40% of the total IT-ITES exports) It is the time for Indian IT companies to check out the opportunities lying inside the nation in parallel. Agreed that they are not as lucrative as the existing ones in terms of margins but they are definitely challenging and moreover it would help them develop the nation overall. Promote the rural entrepreneur help him grow big and get a bigger business from them.

More over it makes sense for the companies to spend money on these kind of opportunities which would lead to an inclusive growth of the nation - if an entrepreneur becomes efficient the whole nation would be benefited, rather than just donating huge chunks to an unknown entity in the name of CSR where you don't even know where the money is reaching to. The government has provided the required conditions for the sector to grow over the last two decades, of course it was done in the larger interest of the nation - but this is time for the sector to pay back to the nation.

300

Yes I have crossed the 300 hurdle last weekend in the game of free cell after losing the very first game of the season - over taking my second best streak of 276 - but this post is not about that and yes this is not a review of the movie 300 either.

India scored a comfortable win against Sri Lanka to secure a spot in Asia Cup final (not sure about the viewer ship of this tournament) and has a chance to go at the title and win the fifth cup playing against the same opponents that they defeated today who also have three titles to their name. In the course of victory India had scored above 300 which is the 300th occurrence in the history of the One Day Internationals.

Way back in 1975 when the ODIs used be a 60 overs a side affair England scored first 300 plus score against India. However West Indies was the first team to achieve the feat in a 50 over game against Australia three years later in 1978. India took the longest time to join the league - in fact it was the last of the top 8 cricket playing teams in the world to do so - in 1996 against the arch rivals Pakistan at Sharjah. From then on in the last ten years India crossed the magic figure 47 times winning 39 of them.

First twenty years i.e, the period between 1975 and 1994 witnessed only 31 instances of 300 plus scores where as last ten years i.e, from July 7 th 1998 to July 4th 2008 the game had 235 such instances. We already have 20 such scores in this year and it is just the half way mark of the calendar year.

Australia has surpassed the score more times(53) than any other team and India has been on the receiving end on most occasions(42). The details are shown in the graph below.

The game also had 43 games so far ( just two games before the 96 world cup) where both the teams playing the match achieved the 300 plus score India tops the list figuring in 18 such games and winning ten of them. More than 25 sides have lost matches after scoring 300 plus in the last four years or so and looking at the trend we might see more such matches and 300 is not a safe total anymore.

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My Experience with Dreams

Dreams are known to be manifestations of the suppressed thoughts and ideas which are lying in the sub conscious mind. If you dream more does it mean that you are an introvert who does not speak out the thoughts? Well I cannot answer this but my gut feel says that it has nothing to do with whether it is an introvert or an extrovert as introvert might complete the thought process but just does not express them. Wait!!! This is not something I want you guys to read ... let us talk about the dreams.

My experience with dreams is that when ever a dream is good or happens to be something of my liking the sleep gets disturbed or alarm blows off or something else happens to make sure that the dream is not completed and even if I get back to the bed immediately within a few seconds - stopping the alarm - the dream does not continue and in a very short while I even forget what it was. Where as when a dream is bad or happens to be something which I don't like even if I forcibly break out of the sleep and try to sleep after a short break of a couple of minutes the dream tends to continue.

One such thing happened to me last night and I cannot recollect what it was? But I can recollect a couple of dreams where I could sense what was coming my way- one such instance that I can quote is - 10 days prior to CAT 2004 - I saw a paper in my dream with 123 questions with different marks for different questions. I told my friend about it - we laughed over the fact that CAT was taking a large toll out of us. And come the exam - we see exactly 123 questions in the paper with variable marking although not as random as I had seen in my dream but the number was a stunner and I was amazed for a couple of minutes during which I recollected Joseph Murphy's words that says - if you want something to happen let your subconscious mind know about it and it will make sure that you go through a path to achieve the goal. The stronger you think the greater the chances of occurring - I cannot tell you how much water can this argument hold but surely at that moment I wanted to read the book that had this argument - The power of Subconscious mind - which happens to be one of the my favorite books. It says a lot of things on how you could use your subconscious mind and Oops wait again is this what I want you guys to read ... Not at all... I think ... Let me take a break...

Over dosage?

Today was India Pakistan final in a Tri-series and at least from the campus I found that there were very few who were following it and definitely there has been a notable drop in the passion of the viewers. There is a view point saying that there is an over dosage of cricket between these two nations. Lets see how much weight can be given to this view point.

The nations have restored their sporting ties in 2003 after a 3 year break. Since then the nations played 30 ODIs each winning exactly half of them. The following table gives data of number of matches played by India against various oppositions in the last five years.

Team	Played	Won
Pakistan	30	15
Australia	29	7
Srilanka	24	12
England	18	11
South Africa	14	5
West Indies	14	7
New Zealand	12	5
Small Nations	26	24
Total	167	86

No doubt we have played more cricket against them but its just 6 matches per year and if we look back we have played each other 44 times in the last 5 years of the previous decade. Each and every ball was savored by the spectators. So why is the case different today?

Is it the lack of big names - Sachin, Saurav, Rahul, Inzamam, Akthar? Common they cannot play for ever.

One could argue that there is a generation gap between the viewers of 90s to that of todays - the interests and passions are different and may be for this generation the number of matches is over dosage and if that is the case the fact that we have about 7 - 8 matches lined up against each other this year is not a good sign. Wait but then ... less than an year back the whole nation celebrated the success of the India over the arch rivals in the T20 world cup. So is it the beginning of slide down of interest in 50 over cricket after the huge success of the latest 20 -20 format? Time can only tell us that.

It is also important to note that India - Australia encounters are evoking more interest in the nation. Has the Indian team graduated to a new level leaving Pakistan behind and have a clash with the world champions? Not really I guess - we just won one series against Aussies - Thanks to Sachin Tendulkar and the young bowlers.

Any ways it is sad to see one of the greatest encounters of the game losing its charm.